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Probability
of Winning
You
have 100 identical marbles: 50 are white and 50 are black.
You
have 2 opaque boxes.
You
must place the 100 marbles into the 2 boxes, any way you like.
A
blind-folded person will reach into one of the two boxes and will
remove one marble.
If the
ball is black, you lose.
If the
ball is white you win $50,000.
Question:
How do
you divide the 100 balls into the two opaque boxes to obtain the most
probable chance of winning?
Answer:
Place 1 white marble into one
opaque box.
Place the remaining 99 marbles into the other opaque box.
You will have a 75% chance of winning.
.5 x 1 +.5 x (49/99) = .75
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